BETTING COLUMN BY SEAMUS O’CONCHUR
Last week we managed to profit from two contrarian views, namely that the widely-derided Shelbourne could get a result at home to Shamrock, and also that Ireland could take something from the freezing cold Friends Arena in Stockholm.
As with anything in life, there will be frustration and satisfaction in equal measures this season. Waterford, our short priced favourite for last week, were turned over in some style by Mervue, who now head into a top-of the table clash with Finn Harps.
We would probably be well advised to stay away from Division One this week, which has confounded a lot of predictions. Instead will sensibly concentrate on the Premier Division, where there are some very short prices on offer, and not all of them worth taking. Four of the five games have odds-on favourites, and among them is one away team, Sligo Rovers, who make the journey to the Home of Football in search of three points to maintain their fine start to the season.
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The game is live on RTE, and if anything, this will mean Sligo will be over-bet by blind favourite backers. The League Champions are undefeated in 5 trips to Dalymount, have scored at least two in their last 3 league games. On the other hand, under 2.5 goals has been a winner in 6 of the last 7 games between the 2 sides. Form, as we said last week, is not something you should follow blindly. From watching Bohs this season every week, and from watching Sligo’s impressive start to the season on MNS, it is possible to get a grip on these 2 sides and most of us would be confident of predicting a tight game.
Although Sligo would ordinarily have the players to cut any opposition open and create a lot of chances, the weather means that they won’t be able to do this as frequently as they want. You can get 11/4 about the draw with Coral, and it’s a bet that appeals, even though a lot of us won’t expect us to get anything. We’re a pessimistic bunch, but the team that Aaron Callaghan sent out were able to live fairly comfortably with Shamrock Rovers a few weeks ago. Sligo will be tougher again but one thing this Bohs team is able to do quite well is retain possession of the ball. A key attribute when playing against superior opposition.
Elsewhere on the fixture list, there are two favourites that appeal. Shamrock Rovers won easily at home against St Pat’s (although they were gifted their goals) and Linfield. They really should be able to break Cork down and win by a couple. Cork had a moderate enough away record last season, and more of the same probably awaits as 2013 goes on.
We sided with Shelbourne last week, somewhat against everyone’s expectations. This week, they face an extremely tough trip to the Brandywell where they are justified underdogs. Derry have been impressive thus far, running riot against UCD and winning away to Cork, albeit with a late goal. Like the other game mentioned above, this should be a routine home win and can be doubled up.
If ever there was a game to keep a watching brief on, it’s in Limerick where St Pat’s are the visitors. The draw will appeal to many, and it looks to be the result that Pat’s will be collecting a lot this season, potentially costing them another title tilt. It’s not big enough to get involved though, and Limerick will make it tough enough for them so a home win isn’t out of the question by any means.
Recommended: Bohs-Sligo Rovers draw, 1pt 11/4 (Coral); Shamrock (7/10) & Derry City (8/15) (P Power) 1pt Double
