WEEKENDER

WEEKLY BETTING COLUMN BY SEAMUS O’CONCHUR

THE WEEKENDER: MAY 10

WKNDR

BETTING COLUMN BY SEAMUS O’CONCHUR

Even though this column is often penned later than it should be, we hope that at lest some readers backed one or both of the draws put up here, which were our own game in Drogheda and the Shamrock Rovers v Sligo game.

With a late equaliser in Tallaght and the big price on ourselves claiming a share of the points in Drogheda, the double paid out handsomely even for punters (guilty!) who didn’t shop around for the best price.

Having fallen behind so early in the game at Hunky Dorys Park, our lads did well to fight back twice and take a point. Between that and the draw at St Pat’s, it was a gruelling run of fixtures finishing with a disappointing bank holiday defeat in UCD.

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The flatness in UCD can probably partly be explained by the effort invested in taking away draws from fixtures against two sides much higher than us in the table, but it begs the question of whether we can realistically finish much higher in the table than we currently are. Hopefully the lads are well rested for the visit of Cork City to the Home of Football tonight.

Cork’s bank holiday weekend couldn’t have been much worse, with a home defeat against St Pat’s last Friday followed by a home defeat to Limerick on Monday in a game in which they finished with ten men. It’s probably a little surprising that more clubs didn’t take the decision UCD did, and give the players an extra day’s rest. Financial concerns were probably to the fore in clubs preferring to play on the bank holiday Monday.

Those two home defeats in a row for Cork means that they didn’t move any further ahead of us in the table, and being realistic, a home draw for us tonight would again keep them in our sights as a team we can overtake in the coming weeks. Needless to say a home win would be great but considering the bookmakers rate us a 9/4 shot to claim the three points, it’s easy to see why we’re just not a team that punters are trusting with their money at present.

One thing that punters can and should be trusting more with their money is the draw. Even apart from last week, this season has been kinder to us when we resist investing in the short ones and try to pick a result that has a realistic chance of occurring but which not many punters are going to be backing. Again this weekend I am going to swerve Derry (7/19) at home to UCD and Sligo (3/10) away to Bray. Given the doubts we’ve had about Sligo of late and their record against Bray last season, 3/10 away from home is an extremely short price to be investing in.

The flipside is obviously that Bray look considerably worse than last season and look the weakest team in the league. Punters will be backing this double but we don’t want anything to do with it. We’ve pointed out before that Derry sometimes look a better side on the road where teams don’t set up to pack the middle and frustrate them, as tends to happen at the Brandywell.

The Setanta Cup final looks a trappy affair to be betting on. One suspects that Drogheda have been eyeing this one for a while and will feel they have every chance of causing an upset, but the home side are definitely improving so it’s one to watch more than anything else.

The bet this weekend is again a draw, in the game between Dundalk and Shelbourne. Shels have taken draws at home to Shamrock Rovers and away o Cork this season, so can grind out results if teams underestimate them. There is no guarantee that Dundalk will underestimate them, but as we said last week (even though they won), there could be an angle opposing Dundalk as they might just be a little over-rated at present. The home side is 8/15, and the draw, which you can have at bigger than 2/1 with BetVictor.

The end of the first series of fixtures would have been as good a time as any to provide P&L for the season. We will do this next week, but it’s been a decent season and hopefully it keeps up.

Recommended:
Dundalk – Shelbourne draw, 1pt 31/10 (BetVictor) Column

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